Appendix 8

 

State of the County 2021

Focus on East Sussex

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hastings Old Town


State of the County 2021: Contents                                                                                               2


 

 

Contents

Population.. 3

Housing. 9

Deprivation.. 12

Environment 13

Economy. 19

Civil Society. 25

Community Safety. 27

Schools. 28

Children.. 31

Health.. 36

Adults. 39

Impact of Covid-19 on the community. 46

Data. 48

 


Population                                                                                                                                                     3


 

Age and sex

The population of East Sussex was estimated to be 558,852 in mid-2020 (ONS mid-year estimates, 2020). East Sussex has a much older age profile compared to England and the South East. 26% of the county’s population is aged 65 or over, compared to 19% in England and 20% regionally. The median age of the county is 48.4, compared to the national average of 40.2

52% of the county’s population was estimated to be female and 48% male, similar to the national split. However, for those aged 65 and over it was estimated that 55% of the population was female and 45% male.

 

 

Gender identity

It is estimated that nationally around 1 per cent of the population might identify as trans or non-binary (Source: Stonewall). For East Sussex this would be approximately 5,600 people.

 

Religion

For the 2011 Census 60% of the population in East Sussex stated their religion was Christian. 0.8% of the population stated their religion was Islam, 0.4% Buddhism and 0.3% Hinduism. 30% of the population stated they had no religion.

Chart showing the religion of people in East Sussex

Marital status

The latest data for marital status is from the 2011 Census.

29.1% of respondents were single, 48.7% were married or in a civil partnership. 2.7% of respondents were separated from their partners, 10.7% were divorced or had been in a civil partnership which was dissolved. The remaining 8.7% of respondents were widowed.


Population                                                                                                                                                     4


                       

Ethnicity

The latest ethnicity data for the county is from the 2011 Census. At the time 91.7% of the county’s population identified as White British, compared to the regional average of 85.2% and the national average of 80.5%.

 

Chart showing the percentage of the East Sussex population belonging to each minority ethnic group

 


Population                                                                                                                                                     5

 

Disability

The 2011 Census is the latest comprehensive data we have on the number of people with a disability in the county. Our local projections suggest that by 2032 there will be over 130,000 people with a disability in East Sussex.

Protected characteristic:

Disability

East Sussex

Eastbourne

Hastings

Lewes

Rother

Wealden

Limiting long-term illness (LLTI) - 2011

107,145

20,831

19,956

19,054

21,242

26,062

Projected LLTI - 2017

114,741

22,407

20,822

20,400

21,744

29,367

Projected LLTI - 2032

143,930

26,642

24,655

25,435

27,006

40,192

Projected disability - 2017

98,608

19,414

17,419

17,578

18,904

25,293

Projected disability - 2032

130,210

24,396

21,594

22,968

24,721

36,531

Disability Living Allowance (DLA) and

Personal Independence Payments (PIP)

(All claimants, February 2020)

32,190

6,921

7,596

5,641

5,496

6,536

Sources: LLTI data: 2011 Census; Disability and limited long-term illness projection:, 2017 based East Sussex County Council Projections, DLA and PIP claimants: DWP StatXplore.

 

Pregnancy and maternity

The ONS births data provides an indication of the number of women in East Sussex who may be pregnant or on maternity.


Protected characteristic:

Pregnancy and maternity

East Sussex

Eastbourne

Hastings

Lewes

Rother

Wealden

Live births - 2019

4,677

915

1,005

796

721

1,240

Births per 1,000 females - 2019

8.4

8.8

10.8

7.7

7.5

7.7



Population                                                                                                                                                     6

Population Change

Population 2021 (562,750) + Births (18,760) – Deaths (26,830) + Migration in (145,320) – Migration out (119,340) = Population 2025 (580,650)


 


Population change 2021-2025: compared to 2021, by 2025 there will be:

 

17,900 more people living in East Sussex (+3.2%)

 

An increase of 0.7% (700 people) in the number of children and young people

 

An increase of 1.5% (4,690 people) in the working age population

 

8.2% (10,430) more people aged 65 and over

 

In East Sussex 4.3%of people will be aged 85+, a greater proportion than England, 2.7%. Ranked 1st in England for the highest proportion of population 85+, (ONS estimate 2019) 

 

In 2025 we expect that just over half of our population will be aged 18-64, with over a quarter aged 65 and over.

Age Range

East Sussex

England

0-17

18.6%

21.1%

18-64

53.6%

59.2%

65-84

23.6%

17.0%

85+

4.3%

2.7%


 

Projected population by age 2021 - 2025 0-17 up 0.7% 18-64 up 1.5% 65-84 up 8.2% 85+ up 9.2%

 

Age Range

2021

2025

Change

0-17

107,270

107,970

700

18-64

306,360

311,050

4,690

65-84

126,430

136,860

10,430

85+

22,690

24,770

2,080

All people

562,750

580,650

17,900

Note: These population projections are based on pre-pandemic data, so do not reflect any demographic changes due to COVID-19.

Source: ESCC population projections (dwelling led) March 2021. All figures rounded to the nearest 10 and therefore may not sum.


Population                                                                                                                                                     7

District population change

By 2025 there will be:

·      an increase of 12.5% (780) more people aged 85+ in Wealden; the smallest increase will be in Eastbourne, 6.6% (310).

·      9.8% (3,680) more people aged 65-84 in Wealden, and 8.1% (1,360) more people in Hastings, Lewes will see a 6.9% (1,600) increase

·      Wealden will also see the largest increase in the working age population (18-64), of 3.3% (2,970)

·      Eastbourne will see a 0.2% (140) fall in the working age population

Map showing change in population by age range across each District and Borough by 2025

Source: ESCC population projections (dwelling led) March 2021. All figures rounded to the nearest 10 and therefore may not sum.

Population                                                                                                                                                     8

Older people moving in and out of East Sussex 2015-19


·      14,266 people aged 65+ moved into East Sussex from elsewhere in England between 2015 - 2019. 9,944moved out of the county, making the net increase 4,322

·      The largest net inflow of people arrived from Kent, Brighton and Hove, Croydon and Surrey

·      The largest net outflow of people aged 65+ was to Devon, with 88 more people moving there than coming to East Sussex; second was Somerset with a total of 63

·      Households of people aged 60+ have the highest average levels of disposable income, when compared to all other households

·      The average life expectancy at 65 for people in East Sussex is a further 20.8 years

·      Between 2015 - 2019 there was a net increase of 15,000 people of all ages moving into East Sussex; 4,500 0-17; 6,100 18-64; and 4,300 65+. 5,500 of these people were from Brighton and Hove with more young people moving into East Sussex from Brighton and Hove than moving out.

Areas with highest net inflow of internal migration 65+ 2015 - 2019

 

Areas with highest net outflow of internal migration 65+ 2015 - 2019

 

Area

In

Out

Net

 

Area

In

Out

Net

Kent

2,393

1,733

660

 

Devon

216

304

-88

Brighton & Hove

1,216

594

622

 

Somerset

118

180

-62

Croydon

541

94

447

 

Gloucestershire

84

136

-52

Surrey

948

554

394

 

Isle of Wight

70

118

-48

Bromley

480

131

349

 

Norfolk

227

270

-43

West Sussex

1,716

1,536

180

 

Suffolk

146

179

-33

Sutton

205

66

139

 

Dorset, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole

122

153

-31

Merton

162

23

139

 

Lincolnshire

160

190

-30

Bexley

175

56

119

 

Cheshire East

23

46

-23

Hertfordshire

278

161

117

 

Nottinghamshire

45

63

-18

Essex

319

207

112

 

 

 

 

 

Greenwich

124

22

102

 

 

 

 

 

Map showing main net flows of people aged 65+ over 2015 to 2019 in and out of East Sussex

 

 

Sources: ONS ‘Internal migration: detailed estimates by origin and destination local authorities, age and sex’, and ENRICH and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)


Housing                                                                                                                                                           9

 


Housing affordability in 2020

·      In East Sussex the median average house price was £285,000, 9.5 times the average annual earnings of residents, which were £30,116

·      In England the median average house price was £245,000, 7.7 times average annual earnings, which were £31,766.

The average ratio of median earnings to median house prices in East Sussex was similar to the South East average.

Chart showing increasing ratio of median earnings to median house prices (decreasing affordability) across East Sussex, the South East and England.

However, the median average house prices in Lewes and Rother were over 10 times average annual earnings of residents, in Eastbourne median average house prices were just under eight times the average annual earnings of residents.

Chart showing the difference in housing affordability across the county based on median earnings and median house prices.Chart showing the ratio of lower quartile (bottom 25%) of earnings to lower quartile house prices in 2020.

The cost of renting varies across the county. The average private rent per week in Lewes was £214 in 2019/20, compared to £149 in Hastings.

Chart showing differences in average rents between districts and boroughs for social housing and private landlords,

Note: Hastings and Rother do not have any LA housing stock. Source: ONS Private rental market summary statistics; MHCLG Live tables on rents, lettings and tenancies.


Housing                                                                                                                                                        10

 


Households

The number of households in East Sussex is expected to grow from around 250,600 in 2021 to 261,400 in 2025, an increase of 4.3% (ESCC household projections by type, dwelling led). The number of households with children is expected to grow by 0.7%, from 59,000 to almost 59,200.

Chart showing differences in tenure types between the districts and boroughs in 2011. There was a higher percentage of both social rented, shared ownership and rent free properties and private rented properties in Eastbourne and Hastings.

Sources: Census 2011, MHCLG live tables on dwelling stock including vacants. Note: Affordable housing includes housing for social rent, shared ownership, low cost home ownership and sub-market rent.


Households in temporary accommodation

There was an increase in the number of households in temporary accommodation across the county between 2017/18 and 2019/20.

 

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

Eastbourne

114

201

171

Hastings

92

145

203

Lewes

80

96

87

Rother

69

56

53

Wealden

40

18

30

East Sussex total

395

516

544

 

New dwellings

In 2019/20 there were 1,842 dwellings completed in East Sussex, an increase on previous years.

Chart showing the number of completed new dwellings increased between 2017/18 and 2019/20. There was an increase in both market dwellings and affordable dwellings.

Source: ESCC Housing Monitoring Database, Lewes District Council housing monitoring system


Housing                                                                                                                                                        11


 

Local Plans produced by district and borough councils and the South Downs National Park Authority show the level and distribution of planned growth across the county. Currently around 2,000 new homes are proposed per year alongside additional employment workspace. Local Plans are being reviewed and may have to consider higher housing targets to meet the assessed need.

Local Plans (adoption date)

Number of dwellings over plan  period

Eastbourne: Core Strategy Local Plan (February 2013)

5,022 (2006-2027)

- 239 per year

Hastings: The Hastings Planning Strategy (February 2014)

3,400 (2011-2028)

- 200 per year

Lewes: Joint Core Strategy (June 2016)

6,900 (2010-2030)

- 345 per year

Rother: Core Strategy (September 2014)

5,700 (2011-2028)

- 335 per year

Wealden: Core Strategy (February 2013)

9,440 (2006-2027)

- 450 per year

The Benefit Cap

The Benefit Cap is a limit on the total amount of benefit most people aged 16-64 can get, it is applied through Housing Benefit or Universal Credit. When it was introduced the cap was £26,000 per annum for couples and parents with children and £18,200 for single people without dependent children. It reduced to £20,000 and £13,400 in November 2016 and remained at that for 2020.

The number of households in East Sussex affected by the Benefit Cap increased from 647 in February 2020 to 1,640 in November 2020.

Households affected by the Benefit Cap

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Nov-20

Eastbourne

28

17

100

114

125

164

391

Hastings

51

52

177

167

162

171

372

Lewes

37

22

108

Sup

125

110*

350

Rother

12

9

70

72

88

87

204

Wealden

21

22

102

81

105

115

323

East Sussex

149

122

557

434

605

647

1,640

Chart shows the number of households subject to the benefit cap in November 2020 in each district or borough by household type. The majority of affected households were single with child dependent(s).

Where a family is considered to be intentionally homeless by a local housing authority (district or borough council) Children’s Social Care must ensure that a child is not destitute. This may require provision of temporary housing. These families cannot claim Housing Benefit or Universal Credit to help with their housing costs, so the full cost is met by the County Council. East Sussex Children’s Services spent £0.3m on such families in 2020/21.

 


Deprivation                                                                                                                                                 12


Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2019 and housing

IMD measures relative deprivation for people living in small areas in England called Lower-layer Super Output Areas (LSOA). There are 32,844 LSOA averaging 1,500 residents ranked 1 (most deprived) to 32,844 (least deprived). IMD are weighted toward income/employment deprivation. Deprivation is by decile i.e. dividing the 32,844 areas into 10 equal groups from most deprived 10% to least deprived 10%. As a relative measure there will always be this even range across England.

In East Sussex there are 329 LSOAs, 22 are in the most deprived 10% nationally, 16 of these are in Hastings, 4 Eastbourne, and 2 Rother. 21 LSOA are in the least deprived 10%, 13 are in Wealden, 6 Lewes, and 2 Eastbourne. People that are more deprived may produce higher demand for Council and other public services. Deprived LSOAs are characterised by poorer health and disability, lower skills, educational disadvantage, higher crime and drug misuse.

Chart showing correlation of greater deprivation with rented housing tenures
Map of East Sussex showing LSOA deciles of deprivation

Areas of high deprivation correlate with rented housing that is meeting a need for low cost housing. This includes concentrations of social rented tenures (up to 70%) and private rented tenures (up to 68%), and both (up to 81%). Measures of deprivation include the indoor living environment, and in these areas, more properties (excluding social housing) may be in poor condition or without central heating, leading to higher heating costs and other negative outcomes.

The relationship with housing tenure type means that the areas of high deprivation may not change IMD decile quickly unless there are significant housing developments or a process of gentrification. Where household income increases people are likely to move to other areas and be replaced by people with greater need for low cost housing. In the least deprived LSOA home ownership is highest, up to 95.2%. However, deprived people may be found in all areas, and not all people in a deprived area will be deprived, as suggested by the more even mix of tenure types across middle level deprivation areas.


Environment                                                                                                                                              13


 

The Cumulative CO2e emissions budget

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in East Sussex fell by about 35% between 2005 and 2018, while the population grew by about 8%. This excludes emissions that occur outside the area due to demand for goods and services that are consumed in the county. This reduction is similar to the national reduction, and driven by the same changes, e.g. the switch from coal to gas and renewables to generate electricity

For East Sussex to contribute to keeping the increase in global average temperature below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels requires cutting emissions across East Sussex by an average of about 13% per year, which roughly equates to cutting total emissions in half every 5 years.

Chart showing recommended carbon budget in millions of tonnes, from 9.2 million for 2018 to 2022 reducing to 0.3 million for 2043 to 2047

Source: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, 2020.

Chart showing carbon dioxide emissions in East Sussex for industry and commercial, domestic and transport. Emissions fell 2005 to 2018 across all but least for transport.

Chart showing carbon dioxide emissions per capita for districts in East Sussex reducing at a similar rate from 2005 to 2018

East Sussex had the lowest emissions of carbon dioxide per person of any County Council area in England in 2018 (BEIS, 2020)



Environment                                                                                                                                              14

Climate adaptation

 

Chart showing the effects of global temperature rise on the UK 2 degree rise: Water Stress: 15% of water resource zones in deficit Heat Waves: More heat-related deaths Flood risk (river and coastal): 2.6m people Food security: Risks to production and supply chains 4 degree rise: Water stress: 25% Heat waves: Three-fold rise in deaths Flood risk (river and coastal): 3.3m Food security: 70% of agricultural land classes as 'poor'

National risks from different levels of climate change (source: Met Office, 2020)

 

Even if global warming can be limited to 1.5ºC, significant additional investment will be needed in measures to adapt to the effects of climate change that are already locked in due to past emissions of greenhouse gases.

UK Met Office predictions of the effects of climate change in East Sussex include hotter and drier summers, milder and wetter winters, more droughts, more flooding and more intense and frequent storms. This is predicted to lead to an increase in heat-related deaths, particularly amongst the elderly, damage to essential infrastructure, increased cost of food, disruption to supply chains and service provision, greater coastal erosion and impact on coastal habitats.

 


Environment                                                                                                                                              15


Water quality

Water pollution is mostly caused by land management practices (e.g. agricultural run-off), wastewater treatment plants, and urban and highway run-off. The quality of waterbodies has deteriorated in recent years. The quality of some ground waters, which provide about 70% of drinking water, have deteriorated due to rising nitrate levels, mostly due to historic farming practices. The quality of bathing waters has generally improved.

 

Chart showing the overall ecological status of groundwater bodies in East Sussex since 2009. There has been a large increase in the amount rated poor since 2013.Chart showing the overall status of surface water bodies in East Sussex since 2013. There has been a large decrease the amount rated good since 2013.

Chart showing the condition of the 10 monitored beaches in East Sussex


Environment                                                                                                                                              16

 


Designated sites and reserves

East Sussex has a rich natural environment, with over two thirds of the county being covered by one or more environmental designations. The table shows how much of the county is covered by which type of designation.

Designated sites and reserves

% of East Sussex

International

Ramsar

3.2

Special Area of Conservation (SAC)

3.6

Special Protection Area (SPA)

2.7

National

Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB)

43.5

National Nature Reserve (NNR)

0.2

National Park

12.0

Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)

7.6

Local

Country Park

0.3

Local Geological Site (LGS)

0.4

Local Nature Reserve (LNR)

0.7

Local Wildlife Site (LWS)

4.7

Notable Road Verge

0.0

Reserve/ Property

Environmental Stewardship Agreement

15.6

National Trust

0.9

RSPB Reserve

0.1

Sussex Wildlife Trust Reserve

0.6

Woodland Trust

0.2

 


Habitats

The key habitats in East Sussex are grassland, arable farmland and woodland.

Habitat

% of East Sussex

Water bodies

1.5

Arable

22.7

Grassland

40.0

Heathland

0.9

Intertidal

0.7

Coastal

0.4

Built up Areas and Gardens

9.1

Woodland

19.9

Other

4.8


Environment                                                                                                                                              17


State of County Report – Ecology

Protected Areas

Over half of the county is designated for its landscape value, either as part of a National Park or an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. There are 65 Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI), covering about 8% of the county, which recognises and protects their biological and or geological value. About half of these SSSIs are additionally designated as being internationally important for biodiversity, either as a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) under the Habitats Directive, a Special Protection Area (SPA) under the Birds Directive, or a Ramsar site (an internally important wetland site).

There are 26 Local Nature Reserves (LNRs), four National Nature Reserves (NNRs) – considered to be the “jewel in the crown” of SSSIs, and 285 Local Wildlife Sites (LWS).

About a third of the county supports priority habitats, which are identified as being of principal importance for conservation.

Condition

About three quarters of the SSSIs are in favourable or favourable recovering condition and the rest have either been partially destroyed or are in unfavourable condition.  About half of the LWS are currently known to be in positive conservation management.

Assets at Risk

Sussex Nature Partnership Natural Capital Investment Strategy 2019 identifies the following priority habitats as being at high risk, because they:

a)    Are not adequately protected under existing mechanisms

b)    Are fragile or vulnerable and/or already highly fragmented

c)    May be of particular significance in a Sussex context

d)    Are irreplaceable or not easily recreated (either on-site or elsewhere) if destroyed.

 

·         Lowland heath – particularly significant in East Sussex, notably at Ashdown Forest, due to small amounts present in the south of England, the fragmentation of the habitat type (especially outside Ashdown Forest) and provides a range of benefits, notably clean water).

·         Mudflats and saltmarsh – these habitats provide a range of benefits yet are under increasing pressure from climate change, development and construction of hard sea defences. The national picture is one of medium risk, but the East Sussex context (with high levels of coastal squeeze) increases the risk to these habitats and the benefits they provide. There are small amounts at Newhaven Tide Mills, Cuckmere Estuary and Rye Harbour.

·         Vegetated shingle – a globally restricted and internationally important habitat, for which East Sussex is a stronghold in the UK, mostly at Rye Harbour.

·         Reedbed, fen and grazing marsh – small and highly fragmented areas remain in East Sussex, notably at Pevensey, yet they have the potential to provide a wide range of benefits, particularly flood risk mitigation in flood plains and provision of clean water.

·         Floodplain woodlands – a fragmentated habitat type which plays a very important role in floodplain function.

·         Species rich grassland – highly fragmented and those areas outside formal designated areas have little/no protection from further loss. These areas are a priority for loss to development.

Nature Recovery Network Mapping

The map below shows the fragmented state of the most important species rich S41 Habitats that are to be conserved under section 41 of the NERC Act.


Environment                                                                                                                                              18

Map showing many important areas for nature, small and fragmented across East Sussex
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Economy                                                                                                                                                      19


GVA per hour

Gross Value Added (GVA) per hour measures the value of goods or services produced in an area per hour worked in that area. Note that revised GVA data was released in December 2019 which substantially changes the GVA attributed to East Sussex.Chart showing Gross Added Value per hour for East Sussex and England, East Sussex is below the England rate with a gap of over 25% for 2018

Source: ONS Subregional productivity: labour productivity indices by UK NUTS2 and NUTS3 subregions

Sources: NOMIS Claimant Count by Age

Employment

·76.3% of working age population (age 16-64) in employment 2020 (down from 77.0% in 2019), England 75.7%, South East 78.3%

·County employment is now above the pre-recession level of 76.0% in 2007

·Employment in Lewes rose by 5.6% in 2020 to 77.1%, however they are below their peak in 2017

·Employment levels in Hastings decreased by 7.7% in 2020 to 72.9%, however they still remain above the pre-recession level

·Employment in Eastbourne fluctuated after the recession; but has been relatively stable since 2017 at rates similar to before the recession

Chart showing the percentage of the working age population in employment for East Sussex and each District and Borough between 2016 - 2020, also with a comparison to 2007Sources: ONS Annual Population Survey

Unemployment

· Claimant Count includes people on Universal Credit and JSA. At May 2021, East Sussex 5.8%, South East 4.9%

· Youth (18-24) unemployment is higher, 10.2%, with Hastings having the highest rate in the county, 14.1%

· Rates for both the whole of the working age population and younger people increased significantly in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic but in most instances have decreased slightly in 2021


Economy                                                                                                                                                      20

Earnings

Percentage of people who work full time and part-time

Chart showing the percentage of people who work full time and part time in England (68.1% FT, 31.9% PT), the South East (66.9% FT, 33.1% PT) and East Sussex (62.1% FT, 37.9% PT)


Average (median) full time earnings

Workplace-based

Residence-based

2010

2020

% Change

2010/20

2010

2020

% Change

2010/20

Eastbourne

£25,120

£30,013

19.5%

£25,598

£31,555

23.3%

Hastings

£21,700

£24,031

10.7%

£21,711

£26,336

21.3%

Lewes

£23,931

£29,355

22.7%

£27,898

£31,031

11.2%

Rother

£21,371

£23,567

10.3%

£26,024

£29,084

11.8%

Wealden

£23,341

£26,999

15.7%

£30,792

£34,747

12.8%

 

Average (median) part time earnings

Workplace-based

Residence-based

2010

2020

% Change

2010/20

2010

2020

% Change

2010/20

Eastbourne

£8,735

£11,628

33.1%

£7,867

£9,665

22.9%

Hastings

£8,010

£9,177

14.6%

£7,404

£9,334

26.1%

Lewes

£9,281

£9,993

7.7%

£9,570

£12,224

27.7%

Rother

£6,372

£9,997

56.9%

£7,678

£9,281

20.9%

Wealden

£7,513

£11,265

49.9%

£8,212

£11,002

34.0%

 

Chart showing Average Full-Time earnings in East Sussex between 2010 and 2020

Chart showing Average Part-Time earnings in East Sussex between 2010 and 2020

 


Data for annual earnings are not available for some areas. For these areas annualised weekly earnings are used and are recorded in bold italics.  Annualised weekly earnings are not produced on an identical basis to annual earnings and are therefore not directly comparable.



Economy                                                                                                                                                      21


Employment by industry

Chart showing the employment by industry nationally, in the South East, East Sussex and by District and Borough Other includes: Arts, entertainment and recreation; Other service activities; Agriculture, fishing, mining and utilities; Transportation and storage; Information and communication.

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) 2019

eSussex Broadband

The eSussex project, led by the Council, is delivering internet connectivity for homes and businesses in the county by investing in fibre infrastructure. Three contracts, worth over £32m in total, have been connecting premises which are not considered commercially viable by private providers. The third contract began delivering at pace in March 2020 has connected almost 6,000 premises in 2020/21. Superfast coverage, in spring 2021 is 98% (Source: ESCC Broadband team)

Businesses

In 2019 there were 2,545 business starts and 2,445 business closures. The East Sussex new business registration rate per 10,000 people increased by 13.4% between 2018 and 2019 to 55. The highest rate was in Wealden 60.8, whilst the lowest was in Rother 47.8 (Source ESCC Business demography, districts, ESCC New business registration rate, districts).

Chart showing the new business rate per 10,000 population in East Sussex, the South East and England between 2013 and 2019 Chart showing the active business rate per 10,000 population in East Sussex, the South East and England between 2012 and 2019

 

Chart showing the East Sussex business births minus deaths between 2014 and 2019


Economy                                                                                                                                                      22


Meeting business needs

Innovative firms employ a higher share of Science, Technology, Engineering, Art and Maths (STEAM) graduates. There are six Skills East Sussex (SES) business-led sector task groups for:

·         Engineering

·         Land-based

·         Construction

·         Creative and digital industries

·         Visitor economy

·         Health and social care.

The Careers Hub has continued to develop its online resources in 2020, with the website receiving over 1,700 views of the seven Open Doors workplace virtual tours during the year (Source: ESCC Economic Development).

10,000 young people, parents and carers tuned in to watch a Virtual Careers Hub event ‘What’s Next in Sussex’ in late 2020 (Source: ESCC Economic Development).

Apprenticeships

There have been 16,600 apprenticeship starts in East Sussex since 2015 (Source: Department for Education).

Chart showing East Sussex apprenticeship starts between 2012/13 and 2019/20 by Intermediate level (780), Advances level (1,060) and Higher level (630)

Apprenticeship starts in East Sussex in 2019/20 were down 17%.

Higher level apprenticeship starts in 2019/20 rose by 37%.

(Source: Department for Education further education data library, apprenticeships)

Apprenticeship Levy East Sussex County Council December 2020:

1.1% of staff apprentices, against the 2.3% target

Placing us 6th highest nationally amongst county councils

Qualifications of working age population 2019

Qualification levels are broadly in line with England and South East averages. Lewes and Wealden have a significantly higher proportion of better qualified people compared with other districts in the county.

Qualifications of working age population 2020

None

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4+

Other

England

6.2%

10.0%

16.9%

18.5%

42.8%

5.7%

South East

4.9%

9.7%

17.1%

18.6%

44.9%

4.8%

East Sussex

6.2%

12.1%

20.4%

19.8%

36.8%

4.7%

Eastbourne

9.2%

11.9%

21.4%

16.0%

32.5%

8.9%

Hastings

11.2%

14.0%

20.6%

19.1%

29.1%

6.0%

Lewes

8.5%*

9.4%

23.7%

21.8%

40.0%

2.9%

Rother

9.3%

17.7%

22.4%

11.5%

34.8%

4.2%

Wealden

1.9%

9.5%

16.4%

26.3%

43.2%

2.6%

Note: Survey data, confidence intervals apply e.g. up to +/- 3.8% for East Sussex, with potentially much larger confidence intervals for District and Borough areas. Therefore, care should be taken when reading these results. None: No academic or professional qualifications

Source: ONS Nomis Annual Population Survey: Qualifications of working age population, 2020 *2020 data for Lewes unavailable, so 2019 figure used.


Economy                                                                                                                                                      23

 

Infrastructure: This map focuses on projects which will improve the infrastructure in East Sussex.

Map showing infrastructure projects across East Sussex with their value

Economy                                                                                                                                                      24

Working well from home in East Sussex

A collaborative project including Team East Sussex and the University of Sussex and representatives from: Locate East Sussex, East Sussex County Council, Local Business Consultants. A survey was conducted in March to June 2021 of employees, employers, and self-employed people in East Sussex to understand the local situation and needs of home-workers. There were 263 respondents with useable data across East Sussex (90%) and Brighton & Hove (10%).


 

Do you think your organisation will encourage working from home in the longer-term (e.g. after current government restrictions are eased)?

Yes, I think my organisation are likely to encourage conducting all work from home for the foreseeable future

Yes, I think my organisation are likely to encourage at least some amount of home-working for the foreseeable future

Not sure

No, I think my organisation is likely to discourage working from home in the future

 

 

 

 

 

Are you currently working from home Reluctantly/ Willingly/ Enthusiastically?

 

 

 

Next steps

1. Separate focus groups for employers, employees, self-employed in July.

2. With information from focus-groups and in partnership with local business consultants, we will develop a ‘toolkit’ to support ongoing WFH.

 

Source: University of Sussex

Chart showing the percentage of people in East Sussex who think their organisation will encourage working from home in the longer-term: Yes I think my organisation are likely to encourage conducting all work from home for the foreseeable future 11.5% Yes, I think my organisation are likely to encourage at least some amount of home-working for the foreseeable future 74.5% Not sure 4.3% No, I think my organisation is likely to discourage working from home in the future 9.8%

 

Chart showing the number of people who completed the survey who are working from home enthusiastically, willingly or reluctantly

 


 


Civil Society                                                                                                                                                25

Voluntary, Community and Social Enterprise sector work and responding to COVID-19

The Voluntary, Community and Social Enterprise (VCSE) sector across the county continued to respond to the needs of people, families and communities in 2020, adapting their services and support in line with government guidance. Collaboration and partnership working between organisations and sectors become a key feature in meeting the growing needs of people and communities.

Partners from both the VCSE and public sectors established several grant funding programmes aimed at helping VCSE organisations access funds to meet growing needs. During the year close to £2m was allocated to VCSE organisations across the county to enable them to adapt to the needs of people, families, and communities.

During the year we have seen the VCSE sector demonstrated great agility, the ability to work at pace, collaborate and work in partnership.

Map showing a number of organisations which East Sussex County Council has funded or supported during the COVID-19 pandemic, including East Sussex Age UK, 3VA, HVA and Rother Voluntary Action


Civil Society                                                                                                                                                26

 


Community Hubs

Community Hubs in each District and Borough brought together VCSE organisations and the public sector, providing services, signposting, establishing referral pathways, as well as delivering essential services and support. The Community Hubs have had contact with over 7,000 people in East Sussex (Source: ESCC VCSE Team).

Volunteering

Volunteering continued to be an essential part of the response to the pandemic, with both local and national recruitment programmes being established to assist people in giving their time to organisations based in their community or area. 196,000 adults, 46% of the population, volunteered at least once in the past year; with 115,000 volunteering at least once a month. These volunteers contribute an estimated 9.6m volunteer hours per annum, with a value of £110m (Source: ‘The contribution and value of the VCSE sector in East Sussex’ Institute for Voluntary Action Research 2021).

Foodbanks

Foodbanks played a key role in ensuring people experiencing hardships had access to food and other items, with VCSE organisations working alongside foodbanks to collect and restock supplies throughout the year. As the year progressed projects began focusing on helping people address food issues through online cooking classes, recipe cards and food parcels with all the ingredients to cook nourishing meals.

Foodbanks in East Sussex have seen an increase of over 150% in the number of people receiving a food parcel, with 7,313 people receiving a parcel in May 2020 (4,383 adults and 2,930 children). Source: ESCC VCSE Team.

Financial, Benefit and Debt Advice

Services experienced substantial increases in people requiring financial support as government guidance impacted on jobs, finance, and the growing levels of debt.


Community Safety                                                                                                                                  27

 


Drug and alcohol-related harm

The number of people receiving substance misuse treatment in the 12 months to end-February 2021 increased by 11.8% to 2,253.

 

From this group, 28.9% were receiving treatment for alcohol dependence, similar to the proportion in 2019/20 and remaining slightly higher than the national average (27%). 47.2% of people were receiving support solely for opiate dependence, a decrease against the 51.5% seen in 2019/20.

Chart showing the number of adults in treatment for substance misuse (rolling 12 months) 2020/21 Opiate: 1,063 Non-opiate only 239 Non-opiate and alcohol 318 Alcohol only 678

When compared to national figures, people in East Sussex are less likely to re-present to services following successful completion of treatment with 4.2% of opiate users re-presenting (vs 4.9% national average), 24.2% of non-opiate users (vs. 32.5%) and 24.2% of alcohol users (vs. 35.3%).

 

There was a small increase of 7.7% in the number of young people accessing ESCC’s Under-19s substance misuse service, from 117 in 2019 to 126 in 2020.

 

Modern slavery and human trafficking

43 adults and 54 minors (those aged under 18) who were potential victims of modern slavery and human trafficking were referred through the National Referral Mechanism in 2020, compared to 39 adults and 63 minors in 2019. The decrease in referrals for minors may be due in part to the restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Criminal exploitation was the most commonly reported type of exploitation in 2020, particularly for young men.

 

MARAC cases

Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Conferences are held to discuss high risk cases involving domestic violence and abuse, sexual violence and abuse, or stalking, harassment and harmful practices. Nationally there was an increase in cases of 9% between 2019/20 and 2020/21, however in East Sussex there was a decrease of 6.2%. There were 7,328 referrals to community domestic abuse services between January 2019 and the end of December 2020, an increase of 26 on the previous calendar year.

 

Chart showing the number of cases discussed at MARAC: 2020/21 Eastbourne Lewes and Wealden 559 Hastings and Rother 427


Schools                                                                                                                                                         28


Due to the cancellation of all assessments, tests and exams in England (from Early Years through to Post 16) in academic year 2019-20, data on attainment is not available.

 

Early Years

Chart showing the percentage of eligible two year olds who take up a place with an eligible early years provider: National average 69% East Sussex 90%

East Sussex received 1,545 applications for a funded place for eligible 2-year olds in the spring 2021 funding period. Of these, 228 children were not eligible to receive funding. 90% (1198) of the remaining 1,317 eligible children have accessed a place with an early years provider, compared to the national average of 69%.

Raising the Participation Age (RPA)

95.3% of young people at academic age 16 (year 12) and 89% age 17 (year 13) are either participating in education, training or employment with training, or undertaking re-engagement provision.  This has been achieved by working with key partners to help address the impact of COVID. This has included frequent and intensive support from the Youth Employability Service (YES) who offer support to children and young people who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) or at risk of becoming NEET. YES interactions have doubled in the past year from 15,000 to 30,000. 87% of looked after children (LAC) academic age 16 are participating in education, training or employment with training. For academic age 17, 75% of LAC are participating. Caseworkers, Through Care and YES have continued to work with the young people to maintain their current placements. They also ensured appropriate pathways into higher education, further training or employment.

Chart showing the percentage of young people at academic age 16 meeting the Raising the Participation Age duty: England 96% South East 95.4% East Sussex 95.3% Chart showing the percentage of young people at academic age 17 meeting the Raising the Participation Age duty: England 91% South East 89.1% East Sussex 89%

Attendance

In September 2020 (when all state-funded East Sussex schools reopened to all pupils), attendance increased from 86.7% in week 1, (1.3 percentage points below the national average) to 89.2% in week 2 (2.2 percentage points above the national average), a difference of 2.5%. Similarly, March 2021 saw the reopening of schools to all pupils following the January 2021 lockdown. Here, there was an increase in attendance from 88.7% in week 1 to 92.4% in week 2 which took attendance levels slightly above the national average. This is particularly positive as pre-Covid attendance levels were slightly lower than the national average.

Chart showing the proportion of pupils attending state funded schools in September 2020 in East Sussex and EnglandChart showing the proportion of pupils attending state funded schools in March 2021 in East Sussex and England


Schools                                                                                                                                                         29

 


Primary School Places

·      Total numbers of pupils in primary schools peaked in 2018/19 and are now in decline

·   There will be a net reduction in capacity of 1,140 places, between 2020/21 and 2024/25, as a result of previous temporary capacity being removed when no longer required and some undersubscribed schools reducing their Published Admission Numbers.

Chart showing the number of Primary School Places planned in East Sussex, alongside the projected number of pupils
Secondary School Places

·      Secondary pupil numbers are expected to continue to increase and peak around 2024/25

·   480 additional permanent places will be added between 2020/21 and 2026/27 to meet forecast demand in local areas.

Source: ESCC Pupil Forecasting Model 22 July 2020.

Chart showing the number of Secondary School Places planned in East Sussex, alongside the projected number of pupils


 

Projected change in youth population

 

2021

2021

2022

2024

% change 2021-2024

2025

2025

2026

2027

2029

% change 2025-2029

0-3

20,220

20,000

19,980

19,980

-1.2%

20,120

20,370

20,560

20,730

20,880

+3.8%

4-10

42,740

42,160

41,450

41,030

-4.0%

40,910

40,660

40,380

40,160

40,060

-2.1%

11-15

32,210

32,740

33,200

33,470

+3.9%

33,520

33,580

33,340

32,980

32,590

-2.8%

16-17

12,110

12,490

12,940

13,170

+8.8%

13,430

13,700

14,030

14,190

14,070

+4.8%

Source: ESCC population projections by age and gender (dwelling led) April 2021, numbers rounded to 10


Schools                                                                                                                                                         30

 

State funded schools percentage overall effectiveness Ofsted 2020

Charts showing the percentage of Primary, Secondary and Special schools by their Ofsted ranking in East Sussex and England

East Sussex pupils

14.2% of East Sussex pupils are of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) backgrounds (January 2021) compared to 31.9% in England (January 2020). Source: School Census.

20.5% of East Sussex pupils are known to be eligible for Free School Meals (January 2021) The latest England figure is 17.3% (January 2020). Source: School Census.

 


First languages of East Sussex pupils

6.1% of pupils were recorded as having English as an additional language. This is where the pupil has been exposed to a language other than English during early development and continues to be exposed to this language in the home or in the community.

Polish is the most commonly recorded first language, other than English, across the County.

Chart showing the number of pupils who listed English as an additional language by their other language 

Source: School Census January 2021


Percentage of pupils of BME backgrounds by district and borough

There has been a 2.1% increase in the school BME population since 2014.

Chart showing the percentage of pupils from a BME background by district and borough: Eastbourne: 22% Hastings: 17% Rother: 13% Lewes: 12% Wealden: 9%

Note: BME in this chart relates to all non-White British pupils

Source: School Census January 2021


Children                                                                                                                                                        31


Troubled Families results

 The national Troubled Families programme (TF2)* runs from 2015 to 2022

·         Troubled Families promotes whole family working which is now     a core element of Children’s Services delivery

·         Payment by Results outcomes are achieved when families reach    significant and sustained progress thresholds in six key areas

·         Successful family outcomes impact positively on all priority outcomes and reduce demand for other services

·         By the end of 2020/21, 5,180 families had received or were receiving support and 3,080 had achieved Payment by Results outcomes.

*From April 2021 the programme has changed its name nationally to Supporting Families

Chart showing the progress and projected performance of the Council in meeting the targets set out in the Troubled Families programme 2

 

 


Child Protection (CP) Plans

·         At the end of March 2021, the number of children with CP plans was 525, a rate of 49.4 per 10,000 children

·         This is above the expected rate benchmarked for child     deprivation; the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) but is linked to the relatively low numbers of children who are in care placements. The focus continues to be ensuring the right children are made subject to plans for the right amount of time, with continued targeted work to ensure plans are progressed in a timely way.

Chart showing the East Sussex rate, target rate and IDACI expected rate for Children with a Child Protection Plan per 10,000 0-17 year olds

Source for all: ESCC Children’s Services

 

 

 


Children                                                                                                                                                        32


Looked After Children

·         Since 2018 LAC numbers have remained fairly stable, with 612 children looked after at the end of March 2021 (57.6 per 10,000 children)

·         Our active participation in the National Transfer Scheme has seen a rise in Unaccompanied Asylum Seeking Children, currently accounting for 9% of LAC within the county

·         Our strategy of using Early Help and CP plans to keep children at home is connected to the rate of Looked After Children (LAC)

Chart showing the East Sussex rate, target rate and IDACI expected rate for Looked After Children per 10,000 0-17 year olds


Children                                                                                                                                                        33


Special Educational Needs (SEN) and Disability

From 2017 to 2020, the number of requests for statutory assessments increased by 54% and the demand for specialist placements for children with SEND continue to grow. Over 40% of all children and young people aged 0-25 with Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) in East Sussex are placed in special schools which is over 3% higher than the England average.  Council funded high-cost placements at Independent and Non-Maintained Special Schools (INMSS) have increased significantly since 2015 and account for 8.8% of all EHCPs – greater than the England average of 6.1%. This means that the expenditure for placements in INMSS in East Sussex is significantly higher than national averages.

EHCPs of SEN maintained by the Council increased by 60% from 2010 (2,280) to 2021 (3,640):

·The vast majority of the increase since 2015 has been in the Key Stage 5 and Post 19 groups

·Numbers are currently forecast to rise to approximately 3,700 by 2022 and 4,000 by 2027

·Just 31% of newly-issued EHCPs are placed in mainstream schools (compared to a national average of 37%). This has been a shift since 2014 when the majority of children with EHCPs were placed in mainstream schools.

·There has been a significant increase in the number of children with autism as a primary need. Numbers of children with autism have increased significantly since 2016 (by around 500 children to 2021) and this trend is set to continue.

·In response to the increased demand for specialist provision, the county has secured agreement for four new free schools (three special schools and one alternative provision).  Two of these, an alternative provision school and a special free school for children with social, emotional and mental health needs and autism opened in September 2020, another is due to open in September 2021 and another in September 2022.

·For 2020, East Sussex EHC Plans as a percentage of population aged 0-25 is in line with National Averages for the first time.

·The overall number of children with SEND (but without an EHCP) has risen to 11.7% (from 9.2% in 2016).

 

Chart showing forecast young people age 5 to 25 with EHC by Primary Need.

Chart showing the number of young people in East Sussex with a statement or Education Health and Care Plan

Note: Until Sep-14 a Statement of SEN could remain in place until the young person reached the age of 19. Since the SEND reforms were introduced from Sep-14 EHC Plans can remain in place until the young person reaches the age of 25.


Children                                                                                                                                                        34

Covid-19 impacts – Early Help and Social Care

·      With the lockdown and the closure of schools in January 2021 the average number of contacts to the Single Point of Advice (SPOA) dropped to 206. Since the opening of schools on 8 March 2021 this has increased to 248 which is in line with pre COVID-19 levels. There has been a significant increase in the number of contacts for children with emotional wellbeing / mental health difficulties.

·   Referrals into the social work teams have remained broadly stable overall, proportions have seen an adjustment as the schools re-opened. Police referrals have decreased and referrals from schools have increased once more. We have continued to work with children on Child in Need (CIN) plans seeing more than 85% throughout. For children subject to CP plans contact levels have been even higher at an average of 95%. Social work staff resumed face to face visiting in September 2020.

·   During the last lockdown there was a rise in children subject to CP Plans through the first school half term of 2021 to a rate per 10,000 of 53.0 (564 children). Targeted work continues to focus on a safe reduction in the number of plans now more children are in school. As at 31 March 2021 the number of children on a CP plan had reduced to a rate of 49.4 (525).

·   The Contact Service has continued to provide contact for children in the care system to see their birth families, using a wide variety of creative virtual methods such as video diaries, story reading over Skype etc. and then resuming face to face sessions where this could be delivered safely. The service has prioritised physical contact for parents and babies and contact as part of the assessment during care proceedings. Some children have found virtual contact sessions much easier to cope with.


Children                                                                                                                                                        35

Covid-19 impacts – Schools

·      No assessments for Early Years Foundation Stage or Key Stage 2.

·   No GCSE or A level exams will be taken this summer.

·   For academic year 2020/21 GCSE and A level awards, schools and colleges are being asked to provide centre assessment grades for their students.

·   The Department for Education will not be publishing data on outcomes from academic year 2020/21, nor producing any league tables. The Council will only have limited access to school by school data which cannot be verified or used for accountability purposes.

Support for schools for the academic year 2020/21, has focused on:

·   Close liaison with schools and early years to maintain provision for keyworker and vulnerable pupils during periods of lockdown and support full reopening.

·   Increased support for schools, through the Primary and Secondary Boards, to support the delivery of high quality remote education.

·   Increased support for vulnerable pupils, including safeguarding and ensuring attendance.

·   Working closely with schools and Public Health to support asymptomatic COVID-19 testing and provide clear communications for families.

·   Managing the impact of COVID-19 on early years providers and ensuring that we maintain sufficient places for the future supporting young people into education, employment and training during a period of rising unemployment and economic downturn that will disproportionately impact 18-24 year olds.

Support for emotional wellbeing and mental health

·   42 mainstream schools and three specialist schools are part of the Mental Health Support Teams (MHST) programme. Overall contacts with children and young people increased, from 175 in December 2020 to 219 by February 2021. This has reduced waiting lists for the service across all three teams.

·   The Educational Psychology Service (EPS) has offered a telephone helpline that enables parents/carers to access support for managing the emotional wellbeing and home learning of their children during lockdown.

·   A confidential telephone service was made available for members of staff in leadership roles in East Sussex schools throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

·   The Schools Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing Adviser has maintained regular communications to schools to promote Mental Health and Emotional Wellbeing toolkits, online resources and training/support.

 


Health                                                                                                                                                             36


 

Adults overweight or obese 2019/20 East Sussex 63% England 63% Eastbourne 63% Hastings 67% Lewes 60% Rother 67% Wealden 59%

 

Current smokers 18+ 2019 East Sussex 13% England 14% Eastbourne 17% Hastings 17% Lewes 10% Rother 12% Wealden 9% Source Public Health Outcomes Framework, Public Health England

Percentage of people with high blood pressure (hypertension) in 2016/17 East Sussex 23% diagnosed 13% undiagnosed England 21% diagnosed 12% undiagnosed

Physical activity amongst adults in East Sussex, 2018/19:

21% do less than 30 minutes a week

 

68% do 150 minutes or more a week

The remaining 11% fall in between these categories, as per Public Health Outcomes Framework, Public Health England

Mental health

It is estimated that 1 in 6 people will have a mental health condition at any one time

Covid-19 hospital numbers

 

2,108 people have been admitted to East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust hospitals with COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic.

 

At the height of the second wave there were 27 people in mechanical ventilation beds in East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust hospitals.

 

Source: Coronavirus in the UK NHS dashboard, gov.uk

Note: East Sussex residents are also served by other NHS Trusts, such as Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust, and Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust, East Sussex residents in hospitals run by those trusts are not included in these statistics. Residents of surrounding counties may also come to East Sussex hospitals so could possibly be included in the figures above.


Health                                                                                                                                                             37

Timeline showing progress of COVID-19 pandemic and response between March and December 2020


Health                                                                                                                                                             38



NOTE: the latest data is available from Public Health England


Chart showing weekly deaths for East Sussex residents March 2020 to May 2021. Covid related deaths small peak April 2020, larger peak December 2020 to February 2021

Map showing confirmed Covid-19 cases per 100,000 population(crude rates) across South East England Cumulative lab confirmed cases rate per 100,000 Shows higher rates in the east and north, medium rates in East Sussex Source Public Health England Data as at 07/06/2021 

 

National findings on risk factors associated with poorer outcomes

Studies looking at outcomes of patients with COVID-19 and analysis of death certificates suggests that there is an increased risk of an adverse outcome for patients with the following:

chronic obstructive pulmonary disease dementia obesity diabetes hypertensive diseases chronic kidney disease

Numbers of people identified by the NHS as needing to shield and the percentage registered for help (as at 25 June 2020)

Eastbourne 3737, 61% Hastings 3472, 59% Lewes 4571, 57% Rother 3741, 61% Wealden 5802, 63% Source Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government

Increasing diagnosis rates with increasing age Of confirmed cases, persons aged 80+ are 70 times more likely to die compared to under 40s Working age males with COVID-19 are twice as likely to die compared to females Local authorities with the highest diagnosis and death rates are mostly urban Persons living in the most deprived areas have higher diagnosis rates and more than double the death rate compared to those in less deprived areas Diagnosis rates are highest in people from black ethnic groups with the highest death rates among those of black and Asian ethnic groups Source: Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID-19, Public Health England, June 2020



Adults                                                                                                                                                             39



Population and health

Compared to 2021, by 2025 there will be:

 · An increase in the population of working age people (age 18-64) of 4,690 (1.5%)

 · A countywide increase in older people (age 65+) of 12,510 (8.4%) from 149,113 to 161,623

® Eastbourne: 1,965 more (up 7.4%) biggest increase in age 75-84 (19.8%)

® Hastings: 1,557 more (up 8.1%), a decrease in 65-74 (-0.3%), but 7.5% in 85+ and 23.1% in 75-84

® Lewes: 2,014 more (up 7.3%) biggest increase in age 75-84 (19.6%)

® Rother: 2,525 more (up 7.9%), small decrease in 65-74 (-2.2%), 22.6% rise in 75-84

® Wealden: 4,450 more (up 10.2%), 21.8% rise in 75-84 and 12.5% rise in 85+

 · 41,060 older people (age 65+) projected to have a limiting long term illness whose day to day activities are limited a little (up 9.1%), 31,450 limited a lot (up 9.8%)

· 12,340 older people (65+) projected to have dementia (up 9.7%)

Chart showing the number of Older people in East Sussex (aged 65+) with a limiting long term illness projections 2025 limited a little 41,060, limited a lot 31,450

Source: POPPI, www.poppi.org.uk

 


Chart showing the increase in older people in East Sussex between 2021-2025 Chart showing the percentage of the population aged 85+ (mid 2019 estimate) for England, East Sussex and the district and boroughs Chart showing projected number of older people (65+) in East Sussex with dementia. 2025 12,340


Adults                                                                                                                                                             40

 


Chart showing the rate of long-term support needs met by admission to residential and nursing homes for older people (65+) in both East Sussex and England

Source: NHS Digital Adult Social Care Outcomes Framework data ASCOF 2A2. Note: New definition 2014/15 onwards, not comparable to previous years.

Chart showing the rate of long-term support needs met by admission to residential and nursing homes for working age people (18-64) in both East Sussex and England

Source: NHS Digital Adult Social Care Outcomes Framework data ASCOF 2A1. Note: New definition 2014/15 onwards, not comparable to previous years.

Chart showing the percentage of older people (65+) still at home 91 days after discharge from hospital

Source: NHS Digital Adult Social Care Outcomes Framework ASCOF 2B1

 

Community care and promoting independence

·      Permanent admissions of working age people (18-64) to long term residential care reduced in 2019/20 and are now below the national average

·      Permanent admissions of older people (age 65+) reduced again 2019/20 and remain significantly below the rate for England

·      The proportion of older people (age 65+) still at home 91 days after discharge from hospital into reablement/rehabilitation services decreased in 2019/20 to 88.4%, but still remains significantly above the national figure of 82.0%

·      93.3% of people who received short-term services during the year, required no ongoing support or support of a lower level; significantly higher than the national average of 79.5%

 Source: NHS Digital Adult Social Care Outcomes

Framework data


Adults                                                                                                                                                             41


 


People receiving long term support

Chart showing the percentage of clients receiving long term support in East Sussex by age Chart showing the breakdown of people receiving long term support in East Sussex by gender

Chart showing the number of people receiving long term support in East Sussex broken down by type of support needed


Chart showing the number of people receiving long term support in East Sussex broken down by working age (18-64) and Older people (65+)

The total number of clients receiving long term support has decreased by 2.8% in 2020/21 to 9,264.

Source: Health and Social Care Connect

Long term support encompasses any service or support which is provided with the intention of maintaining quality of life for an individual on an ongoing basis, and which has been allocated on the basis of eligibility criteria/policies (i.e. an assessment of need has taken place) and is subject to regular review.

Source: East Sussex Health and Social Care Connect

 


Adults                                                                                                                                                             42



Requests for support: Access contacts handled

Chart showing the number of access contacts handled by Health and Social Care Connect

 

·    The Access team in Health and Social Care Connect (HSCC) handled 74,540 contacts in 2020/21, an increase of 6,640 (10%)compared to 2019/20.

Source: East Sussex Health and Social Care Connect 
Carers receiving support

Chart showing the number of carers receiving support in East Sussex, in 2020/21 6,433

·      The total number of carers receiving support has decreased by 9.7% in 2020/21. This is due to decreased incoming contacts and re-focusing of work to support hospital discharges, home care closures and the Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) population.

·      Carers receive support including Information, Advice and Other Universal Services / Signposting

Source: East Sussex Health and Social Care Connect

 


Adults                                                                                                                                                             43

 


Safeguarding

Chart showing the number of safeguarding concerns and enquiries in East Sussex between April 2019 and February 2021

95% of safeguarding enquiries resulted in the expressed outcomes being achieved or partially achieved in 2020/21.

 

Chart showing safeguarding enquiries outcomes in East Sussex in 2020/21. Fully achieved 53%, Partially achieved 42%, Not achieved 5%


There has been a decrease in the percentage of safeguarding enquiries for adults who lack capacity between 2019/20 and 2020/21 (26% to 21%)

Chart showing the mental capacity and advocate support for completed safeguarding enquiries in East Sussex

 

Source for all: East Sussex Adult Social Care and Health

Integrating health and social care

With our partners we are shaping the next steps for strengthening joint working to meet the needs of the diverse communities within East Sussex, to improve population health and impact on social and economic wellbeing more broadly to help reduce health inequalities.

We are part of the Sussex Health and Care Partnership (SHCP), the Integrated Care System for Sussex, alongside the upper tier and unitary authorities, CCGs and NHS Provider Trusts in West Sussex and Brighton and Hove. Further details of the SHCP can be found on its website https://www.sussexhealthandcare.uk/


Adults                                                                                                                                                             44

COVID-19 Impacts – Adults

·      Adult Social Care and Health (ASC&H) have continued to undertake a range of pandemic-related work, including: testing; local contact tracing and Outbreak Control; flu vaccinations; Care Homes Support (including capacity and workforce); support to Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) people, as well as maintaining our core business.

·      ASC&H continues to work in close partnership with East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust (ESHT), and the other Acute Trusts that support East Sussex residents, to support the timely discharge of patients from hospital into care homes and back into the community. 

·      The Department has also continued to provide support to keep vulnerable adults safe within our communities. Many staff have, by necessity, continued to work in offices and operational buildings whilst others have continued to provide support remotely. Face-to-face Safeguarding, Care Act and Mental Health Act Assessments have continued within our communities, using appropriate infection control measures.

Care Homes:

·      The challenges faced by care homes have been significant and varied, including the challenge of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) provision during the first wave; managing significant outbreaks of COVID-19 amongst residents and staff; and supporting residents, care staff and families through loss and bereavement.

·      The department has supported a range of care homes with the provision of temporary staff; meals; deep cleaning; infection prevention and control guidance; psychological wellbeing support for staff; regular information bulletins; weekly virtual huddles where current issues are discussed with local clinicians.

·      In May 2020, the Sussex Health and Care Partnership (SHCP) established the Sussex Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Disparity Programme in response to the evidence emerging from the Office for National Statistics around the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic communities. A key part of the Programme has been the development of the Sussex Care Homes BAME Staff Network. This network is supported by the Sussex Health and Care Partnership which includes all Sussex NHS Organisations and the three Local Authorities. The purpose of the network is to provide a place for care home staff to bring new perspectives and fresh ideas that helps drive change and progress. In this space, staff are able to:

·         Celebrate a range of diversity through social events and activities;

·         Facilitate informal relationships with other BAME care home workers in Sussex;

·         Reflect on the last few months and how the pandemic has made an impact on BAME lives and communities; and

·         Access peer support through discussions about lived experiences.

·         Receive guidance and signposting to appropriate services, if desired; and

·         Work with employers to ensure that BAME staff have a consistent and positive experience in the home(s) they work in.

Practical support to residents who are shielding or vulnerable:

At the start of the pandemic there were 21,672 people registered as Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV). As a result of a new Risk Model, developed by central Government, this figure increased to 38,169 by the time shielding ended on 31 March 2021. We made contact with individuals identified as needing to shield and provided information, advice and practical support either directly or through the five district and borough Community Hubs.


Adults                                                                                                                                                             45

 

Self-isolation:

ASC&H have implemented support to residents required to self-isolate in East Sussex. The basic support offer is broadly similar to that which is currently offered to CEV individuals (albeit shorter term and potentially more urgent) and covers:

·      assisting people with access to food;

·      befriending and wellbeing services;

·      mental health support; and

·      delivery of prescriptions.

ASC Contact Strategy:

In addition to support offered to CEV and other vulnerable people, a contact strategy specific to ASC&H clients and carers was devised to offer reassurance and signposting to local support during the current lockdown. We also took the opportunity to share key messages on the COVID-19 vaccination programme, and to collect email addresses for future contacts.

Future ways of working:

New ways of working for ASC&H services were required as a result of COVID-19. This included provision of devices and tools to enable staff to work from home wherever possible; use of digital tools to enable remote assessments, meetings etc; the use of data and insight to inform our COVID response, including the management of Clinically Extremely Vulnerable clients; and a move towards more electronic communication.

We will build on the changes made as a result of COVID-19 to ensure that that people are able to engage with services in a way that meets their needs, for example by using digital tools to access advice and information to support decision making.



Impact of Covid-19 on the community                                                                     46

 

The Council conducted a survey in November/December 2020 to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the attitudes, and behaviours of people in East Sussex, now and in the future.

 


Chart showing the answers to the question: In the year to come, which of the following, do you expect will apply to you?


 

 


Chart showing which area of their lives people in East Sussex, or their families, think is of the greatest concern to them

Source: East Sussex Coronavirus Survey Report 2020

Chart showing which topics are the priority of people in East Sussex as the county rebuilds for the effects of COVID-19


Impact of Covid-19 on the community                                                                                      47


 

Chart showing how long people in East Sussex think it will be before they, and their family, fully recover from COVID-19. 61% think it will take between 3 - 12 months

Chart showing how people think COVID-19 has changes their relationship with their local community. As people get older they were more likely to say that the pandemic has separated them from others.

 

Chart showing the Initiatives people thought they may need to use in the next six months. As people got older they were more likely to expect to use services


Data                                                                                                                                 48

 

We use a wide range of data to help us understand the context for our plans and the impact we are having through our work and in partnership. A selection of this data is listed below. Years are financial (April-March) or academic (September-August) unless otherwise stated.

Key: CY – calendar year (January-December), NA – data not available.

 

Measure

18/19 outturn

19/20 outturn

19/20 England

Percentage of working age residents (16-64 year olds) with a level 4 or higher qualification (HNC, HND, degree etc.) (CY)

35.6%

36.8%

42.8%

Percentage of working age residents (16-64 year olds) with no qualifications or qualified only to NVQ1 (CY)

19.2%

18.3%

16.1%

Annual gross full time earnings, median average (residence based)

£29,345

£30,116

£31,766

Percentage of working age population (16-64 year olds) in employment

73.6%

80.1%

76.2%

People claiming unemployment related benefits (alternative claimant count) percentage of population 16-64 year old at February

3.0% (2020)

6.3% (2021)

6.6% (2021)

New business registration rate per 10,000 people over 16 (CY)

48.5

55

76.9

New houses built, total completed / total affordable

1,734 / 295

1,842 / 468

N/A

Average Attainment 8 score per pupil state funded secondary schools (assessment/calculated grade)

N/A

48.5

50.2

Percentage of pupils who achieved a 9-5 pass in English and maths GCSEs (assessment/calculated grade)

N/A

47.4%

49.9%

Average point score (APS) per entry for level 3 exams including A levels (16-18 year olds)

N/A

34.86

37.96

Attainment of A level students (age 16-18) average point score (APS) per entry, best 3

N/A

35.65

38.90

Attainment of A level students (age 16-18) % achieving grades AAB or better at A level, of which at least two are in facilitation subjects

N/A

15.3%

24.2%

Rate per 10,000 (aged 0-17 population) of Looked After Children

56

56

67

Rate per 10,000 (aged 0-17 population) of children with a Child Protection Plan

53.5

50.4

42.8

Percentage of children who ceased to be looked after adopted during the year ending 31 March

16%

16%

11%


Data                                                                                                                                 49

 

Measure

18/19 outturn

19/20 outturn

19/20 England

Hospital admissions caused by unintentional and deliberate injuries in children aged 0-14 years, rate per 10,000 resident population

N/A

100.3

91.2

Percentage of children aged 4-5 years with excess weight (overweight or obese) LA by postcode of child

23.4%

23.0%

23.0%

Percentage of children aged 10-11 years with excess weight (overweight or obese) LA by postcode of child

28.2%

32.0%

35.2%

Percentage of adults (aged 18+) classified as overweight or obese

62.5%

62.6%

62.8%

Proportion of people who use Adult Social Care services who feel safe

72.7%

70.9%

70.2%

Proportion of people (65 and over) who were still at home 91 days after discharge from hospital

92.8%

88.4%

82.0%

Long-term support needs of younger adults (aged 18-64) met by admission to residential and nursing care homes, per 100,000 population per year

14.4

12.4

14.6

Long-term support needs of older adults (aged 65 and over) met by admission to residential and nursing care homes, per 100,000 population per year

491.0

485.5

584.0

Proportion of older people aged 65 and over who received reablement services following discharge from hospital

2.9%

3.1%

2.6%

The outcome of short-term services: sequel to service: proportion of people who received short-term services during the year, where no further request was made for ongoing support or support of a lower level

92.2%

93.3%

79.5%

Proportion of people who use Adult Social Care services who find it easy to find information about support

75.5%

75.7%

68.4%

Social isolation: percentage of adult social care users who have as much social contact as they would like

49.2%

52.4%

45.9%

Emergency hospital admissions due to falls in people aged 65 and over per 100,000

N/A

2,488

2,222

Suicide rate per 100,000 of population, three year average

13.7

(16-18)

13.5

(17-19)

10.1

(17-19)

Number of people killed or seriously injured on the roads (CY)

408

(2019)

293

(2020)

N/A